The business and employer association for organisations based in Ireland, Ibec, has suggested in a report that a hard Brexit could result in a steep reduction in farm output of around €3,000 per farm annually.
The worst case scenario included the introduction of World Trade Organisation (WTO) tariffs and non-tariff barriers, as well as a 10% exchange rate depreciation from 2016 levels.
Overall food and drink output in Ireland could take an eight per cent hit, on a permanent basis. The Ibec forecast is off a €2.1 billion hit to food and drink exports in this hard scenario.
